Does a first-round bye hurt in the College Football Playoff? Early results raise questions

Jack Diwik
Sat, 03 Jan 2026 02:26:11 +0000
Football, Instagram Page, News, Sports, cfp, cfp committee, cfp controversy, cfp first round bye, cfp format, cfp quarterfinals, college football analytics, college football byes, College Football Playoff, college football playoff bye, college football postseason, college football postseason format, college football scheduling, expanded college football playoff, georgia football playoff, indiana football playoff, ohio state football playoff, ole miss sugar bowl, oregon football playoff, rest vs rust, texas tech football playoff

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day leaving the field at AT&T Stadium Wednesday after the Buckeyes 24-13 loss to the Miami Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff quarter finals. Credit: Sandra Fu | Managing Photo Editor

An hour before 2025 ended, No. 2 Ohio State’s football dreams came to a crashing conclusion when it lost the Cotton Bowl 24-14 to the No. 9 Miami Hurricanes.

The next day, when the clock struck zero inside the Superdome, the No. 6 Ole Miss sideline spilled onto the field, white and powder blue jerseys racing toward the Sugar Bowl trophy after its stunning win over No. 3 Georgia.

No. 4 Texas Tech couldn’t even score a point in its 23-0 loss to No. 5 Oregon in the Orange Bowl.

All three teams were higher seeds and had thus earned a bye before embarking on their bowl path, each hoping it would take them to a national championship.

And each one lost.

All told, teams that earned a pre-bowl bye over the two years of the 12-team college football playoff are a combined 1-7, with only Indiana escaping the fate.

The question remains whether the time off hurts the sport’s best teams or if the losses are the result of the better teams winning on the field. It may be a combination of both.

Why the record looks worse than it is

The 1-7 figure is striking, but needs context.

In the first season of the expanded playoff in 2024, first-round byes were awarded to the four highest-ranked conference champions, not the four best teams overall. That distinction elevated Boise State and Arizona State, ranked ninth and 12th nationally, into the top four despite clear gaps in efficiency, depth and talent.

Those deficits showed.

Penn State entered the Fiesta Bowl as a 10.5-point favorite and overwhelmed Boise State 31-13. Opponent adjusted efficiency metrics reflected the same imbalance. Penn State finished the regular season ranked sixth nationally, while Boise State ranked 21st.

A similar dynamic unfolded in the Peach Bowl. Texas survived Arizona State in double overtime, but entered the game ranked fourth nationally in opponent adjusted efficiency compared to Arizona State’s 39th. Ohio State entered the Rose Bowl ranked first in SP+ and dismantled Oregon 42-21 on its way to a national championship. The Buckeyes later produced a school record 14 NFL draft picks, including four first-rounders. Oregon had none.

Georgia’s lone loss as a higher-rated metrics team (and betting favorite) came as the Bulldogs played without starting quarterback Carson Beck, who suffered a wrist injury in the SEC Championship Game. Freshman Gunner Stockton was forced into his first career start against a Notre Dame defense ranked inside the top 10 nationally in yards per play allowed.

A corrected system, familiar problems

The way the 2025 top-four seeds were picked fixed that inequity, as byes were awarded to the top four teams overall, instead of the top four conference winners.

Yet the pattern remained.

In the Cotton Bowl, Miami exposed lingering issues for Ohio State. The Hurricanes recorded five sacks against a Buckeye offensive line that had allowed five sacks to a similarly rated Indiana defense in its previous game.

Issues that had lingered throughout Ohio State’s season resurfaced. A missed field goal, uneven offensive line play and a costly pick-six in the red zone all contributed to a 24-14 loss.

Ole Miss’ Sugar Bowl win over Georgia was closer on paper than the seeding suggested. The Rebels entered the postseason ranked eighth nationally in SP+, just two spots behind Georgia at sixth, and had already demonstrated their ability to compete with the Bulldogs.

Earlier in the season, Ole Miss held a nine-point fourth-quarter lead in Athens before surrendering 17 straight points in a 43-35 loss. The result underscored how narrow the gap between the two teams had been all year.

Meanwhile, Oregon delivered the most decisive scoreline of the round, shutting out Texas Tech 23-0, though the margin was shaped more by defensive control than offensive explosiveness.

Oregon was not coming off a bye, yet its offense struggled to find rhythm. After scoring 51 points the previous week against James Madison, the Ducks managed only two touchdowns, one of which came with 16 seconds remaining and the outcome already decided.

The Ducks’ lone first-half points came on a second-quarter field goal following a Texas Tech fumble at its own 26-yard line. Oregon’s offense stalled again, settling for three points after failing to generate a sustained drive.

The final score reflected Texas Tech’s offensive struggles as much as Oregon’s defensive dominance, as repeated turnovers and short fields wore down the Red Raiders over four quarters.

Indiana provided the lone standout.

The Hoosiers entered their quarterfinal as the betting favorite and with one of the strongest predictive profiles in the field. They ranked ahead of their opponent in opponent-adjusted efficiency and closed the regular season with greater consistency on both sides of the ball.

Indiana validated that profile, becoming the only bye team across the first two seasons of the expanded playoff to advance. The result reinforced that the bye itself is not prohibitive when paired with clear efficiency and matchup advantages.

Even with most outcomes explainable through talent and efficiency, one detail shifts the broader narrative.

Where the bye may actually matter

How the games unfolded revealed a trend too consistent to ignore. Across eight quarterfinal games, teams with first-round byes have scored a lone field goal in the first quarter, outscored 51-3.

Every bye team from the 2024 slate, along with Ohio State in 2025, trailed by double digits before halftime.

Those slow starts are not accidental.

Unlike basketball, where high-intensity situations can be recreated in practice, football resists replication. Teams cannot safely simulate full-speed pass rush, live tackling, or game-day chaos without risking injury to key players. No matter how intense practice becomes, it cannot mirror playoff conditions.

Timing compounds the issue.

Under the current format, bye teams often go three weeks or more without playing a meaningful game. Teams without byes enter quarterfinals off high-stakes wins, carrying momentum and competitive rhythm into the matchup.

The NFL provides a useful comparison. Its postseason byes typically last one week, preserving rest without sacrificing timing. The College Football Playoff has created over a three-week layoff long enough to dull execution without delivering a clear physical advantage.

Indiana’s success suggests the bye is not inherently damaging. Its impact appears situational and most pronounced for teams reliant on early offensive timing or those entering the postseason with unresolved lineup issues.

The bye does not make teams worse. It does, however, delay adjustments and shift pressure into the opening minutes of a game when momentum is most volatile.

A question still unfolding

Eight games do not constitute proof. The expanded College Football Playoff remains in its infancy, and the selection committee is scheduled to meet in late January to discuss potential adjustments to the format.

Early returns also indicate that more than three weeks without meaningful competition is too long in a sport defined by timing.

Rest matters, but so does rhythm.

In a postseason defined by momentum and precision, college football is learning that excellence does not always benefit from waiting.

Sometimes, it benefits from playing.