Bruce Thornton’s shot to become the all-time scoring leader for men’s basketball at Ohio State. Credit- Dominic Ferraro | Lantern Photographer
Ohio State’s NCAA Tournament hopes were clouded in uncertainty.
The Buckeyes had just dropped a crucial game at Iowa by 17 points, which moved them from one of the last teams in the Big Dance to one of the first teams out in ESPN bracket projections.
That was 12 days ago.
Now, after ripping off three straight wins, including one over then-No. 8 Purdue, to end the season, Ohio State is off the “bubble” and likely on its way to its first NCAA Tournament berth in four years.
But what exactly does it mean to be on or off the bubble?
Every March, the phrase dominates college basketball conversations as analysts and fans debate which teams should be among the final selections in the NCAA Tournament’s 68-team field and which should be left out.
Behind those debates lies a detailed evaluation process conducted by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
According to NCAA coordinator of men’s basketball tournament operations David Warlock, the selection committee tracks teams throughout the season as it compiles information to compare resumes ahead of Selection Sunday.
“It’s a season-long evaluation of teams,” Warlock said. “The committee monitors conferences throughout the year and gathers information from a variety of sources.”
Throughout the season, the 12-member selection committee, which is made up of athletic directors and conference commissioners from 12 conferences in Division I basketball, is tasked with monitoring teams while reviewing team sheets that compile results, statistics and key metrics used to evaluate each program’s resume.
Those sheets include metrics such as the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), strength of record and predictive analytics such as KenPom and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index and Wins Above Bubble (WAB).
NET, which replaced the Rating Percentage Index (RPI) in 2018, is the primary indicator the committee uses to measure teams’ success. The formula has two components: the team value index, which measures results, and adjusted net efficiency, which is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiencies.
“The metrics help sort the information,” Warlock said. “Especially the NET and the quadrants. Those are strong sorting tools.”
The results from the NET culminate in a ranking system that grades teams’ games, taking into account factors such as where the game was played and the result.
For example, Quadrant 1 wins include home games against teams ranked 1-30 in NET, neutral-site games against teams ranked 1-50 and road games against teams ranked 1-75. Since rankings change daily, quadrant wins can change as well.
“What’s a Quad 1 win on Tuesday may be a Quad 2 win on Wednesday or Thursday,” Warlock said. “It evolves day to day.”
Currently, Ohio State ranks No. 30 out of 365 teams in NET, going 3-10 in Quadrant 1 games, 5-1 in Quadrant 2 and 6-0 in Quadrant 3.
While 88% of at-large bids to the tournament since 2019 have more than three Quadrant 1 wins, the Buckeyes will likely become the ninth team to make the tournament with only three.
“They’d been sweating on the bubble for months,” ESPN’s Neil Paine said. “But they’re now at a 91% chance to make the field.”
But with all the metrics that go into Selection Sunday, numbers alone do not determine the final bracket.
Committee members also rely on observation when evaluating teams throughout the season, watching games both in person and through film.
“It would be foolish not to acknowledge that the committee is observing these teams throughout the year,” Warlock said.
While fans often refer to this as the “eye test,” Warlock said the committee’s evaluation process is built on a combination of analytics and context.
Head-to-head results, performance against common opponents and the circumstances surrounding games can all factor into the committee’s decision-making process.
“If they played head to head, that certainly would matter,” Warlock said.
Player availability can also influence how a team’s resume is evaluated.
“If a team clearly is better with a player on the roster and that player wasn’t available, that can be part of the evaluation,” Warlock said.
In Ohio State’s case, injuries played a role in several of the Buckeyes’ losses. Five of their 11 defeats came without one of the team’s regular starters in the lineup.
Entering the Big Ten Tournament, the Buckeyes are now fully healthy, a factor head coach Jake Diebler says the committee should consider.
“I thought that if we could get healthier, we could play our best ball at the right moment,” Diebler said. “And I think that’s what we’re seeing.”
Ohio State is projected as a No. 9 seed in ESPN’s latest bracketology.
But while projections suggest Ohio State is safely in the field, its return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in four years will ultimately be decided on Selection Sunday, when the committee finalizes the 68-team bracket.
“At the end of the day, the committee’s job is to select the 68 best teams based on the entire body of work,” Warlock said.
